Human moon landing in 2026?
Overestimating short-term impact (Amara's Law). AI estimates 11% vs market's 6%, suggesting the market underprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Human moon landing in 2026 is near-impossible (1%). Artemis III is not scheduled until 2027 at the earliest, and has faced repeated delays. China targets late 2020s. SpaceX Starship lunar lander is still in development. No mission is even close to ready for 2026.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Artemis III scheduled for 2027 at earliest. Already delayed multiple times.
- SpaceX Starship (lunar lander for Artemis III) still in Earth-orbit testing phase.
- No in-space refueling test completed. Required for lunar mission.
- China targeting late 2020s for crewed lunar landing.
- 1% = absolute minimum. No credible path to human moon landing in 2026.
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 5+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
Compare Markets
Searching Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & Metaculus…
Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)