Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Overestimating short-term impact (Amara's Law). AI estimates 29% vs market's 38%, suggesting the market overprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Category 4 hurricane US landfall market at 39% is overvalued. The historical base rate for a Cat 4+ US landfall in any given year is approximately 12-15%. While the 2025-2026 period features elevated SSTs (sea surface temperatures) that could amplify hurricane intensity, the specific requirement of Cat 4 at landfall (not just Cat 4 at peak) dramatically narrows the probability. Most major hurricanes weaken before landfall.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- 39% vs. 5%: Our AI Is Too Low — While 39% overestimates, our AI's 5% underestimates by ignoring elevated SSTs and the current hyperactive hurricane cycle.
- Base Rate: 12-15% — In 125 years of records, Cat 4+ US landfalls occur roughly once every 7-8 years. The market's 39% implies once every 2.5 years.
- Elevated SSTs Add Risk — Above-average sea surface temperatures fuel more intense storms, potentially raising the base rate to 18-22%.
- Landfall ≠ Peak Intensity — Many powerful Atlantic hurricanes miss the US coastline entirely or weaken before impact. Harvey, Irma, Michael made Cat 4 landfall but most don't.
- Two-Year Window — This resolves 'before 2027,' giving two hurricane seasons (2025 remnant + full 2026). Two seasons at 18-22% each ≈ 33-40%.
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 5+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Compare Markets
Searching Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & Metaculus…
Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)