At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Forecasting market: At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We evaluate the 14% probability for this geopolitical market, which is shaped by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (4th year) and the secondary effects of the US-Iran war diverting Western attention and resources. Our model estimates 30%, generating a 16% edge. The market appears undervalued at current levels.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- 14% vs. 30%: Moderate Mispricing — The crowd underestimates the probability of this geopolitical event.
- Iran War Cascade — The US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026) creates secondary effects across all geopolitical markets through alliance reshuffling, resource diversion, and escalation dynamics.
- Historical Base Rates — Geopolitical events of this type have occurred with moderate frequency when similar conditions are present.
- Intelligence Uncertainty — Geopolitical markets carry inherent information asymmetry. State actors have private information that prediction markets cannot access.
- YES Position — Strong conviction based on structural analysis.
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 5+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
Compare Markets
Searching Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & Metaculus…
Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)