Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?
Kalshi market: Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for Trump leaving office before 2028 is overvalued at 34%, with our estimate at 5%. Leaving office requires resignation, removal (impeachment + conviction), or death/incapacity. Resignation is unprecedented for a president in strong political standing. Conviction requires 67 Senate votes — impossible with R majority. Death/incapacity is low probability for his age group over a 2-year period.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Removal Is Impossible — 67 Senate votes = 14+ Republican senators voting to remove their own party's president. This won't happen.
- Resignation Has No Precedent — Only Nixon resigned (under threat of 67 votes). Trump faces no such threat.
- Death/Incapacity: ~3% — For a 79-80 year old over 2 years, actuarial probability of death is ~3-4%. But incapacity must also be severe enough for 25th Amendment.
- 25th Amendment Requires Cabinet + VP — Involuntary removal requires VP Vance AND a majority of Trump's own cabinet. Zero chance.
- 5% Is Generous — Essentially accounts only for health-related tail risk.
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 5+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Compare Markets
Searching Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold & Metaculus…
Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)