Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for Gavin Newsom being the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee is overvalued at 28%, with our revised estimate at 15%. The 2028 D primary will be the most competitive open primary since 2008. Harris, Shapiro, Whitmer, Buttigieg, Warnock, and others will compete. No single candidate should be above 20% at this stage. CA governors have never won the presidency.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.