Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 6.0% vs the market's 94.5%, identifying a 88.5% edge on the NO side. Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Iran are rare and often short-lived due to deep-seated hostilities and geopolitical tensions. Recent diplomatic efforts, including those involving the US, have led to temporary ceasefires, but ongoing threats and military actions suggest instability.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ceasefire agreements between Israel and Iran — Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Iran are rare and often short-lived due to deep-seated hostilities and geopolitical tensions.
- Current diplomatic efforts and geopolitical tensions — Recent diplomatic efforts, including those involving the US, have led to temporary ceasefires, but ongoing threats and military actions suggest instability.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran until 11:59 PM IRST on August 9, 2026. It resolves to 'No' if either country takes a qualifying military action during that time.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including On The Hour – August 3, 2026 | Trump Reveals Why He Stopped a ..., Iran Update Special Report, August 1, 2026, Iran and Israel say attacks halted after Trump tells both to "stop 'shooting'" on ...
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.