🌍 WorldPolymarketmedium confidence
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Alpha Opportunity
22/100
Market Price3%Polymarket
Analyst Estimate2%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+1.1%Bet NO
RecommendedNOJan 1, 2027
Trade on Polymarket →Alpha Thesis
📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
50/100
📊Free Summary
We evaluate the 3% probability for this geopolitical market, which is directly connected to the ongoing US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz closure, Operation Epic Fury, and regional escalation dynamics. Our model estimates 2%, generating a 1% edge. The market appears overvalued at current levels.
📐Key Metrics
1
3.1% vs. 2.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing higher than our research suggests, creating a 1.1% edge.
Key Findings
🔒
⚡ Upgrade to ProFull Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 0+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Edge Magnitude+1.1% raw edge — Small inefficiency
8
Liquidity Health$29K available — Thinner market, size carefully
1
Volume Activity$2K 24h volume — Lower activity, watch for stale pricing
0
Time ValueExpires in 7 months — Longer horizon, more uncertainty
40
Analyst Confidencemedium confidence — Moderate conviction
60
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
🧠
Extreme Probability Neglect
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
Market Data
Liquidity$29K
24h Volume$2K
Expected Return1.2%
Resolution DateJan 1, 2027
Time to Expiry7 months
Risk Levelhigh
Payoff Scenarios
InvestWinLose
$100+$3-$100
$250+$8-$250
$500+$16-$500
$1000+$33-$1000