US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Key Findings

• Historical US military strikes on Cuba — Historically, the US has not conducted military strikes on Cuba since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The base rate for US military strikes on Cuba is extremely low.
• Current geopolitical tensions and US policy — While there are rising tensions and increased intelligence-gathering flights (Sources 2, 7), US officials have stated there is no imminent military action planned (Sources 1, 9). Trump's rhetoric (Sources 6, 8) increases tensions but does not equate to policy action.
• Probability of conditions leading to a strike — P(Tensions escalate to military action) × P(US decides on a strike given tensions) × P(Strike occurs by Dec 31, 2026). Each sub-probability is low given current evidence.
• Updating with current evidence — Starting with a very low base rate, the current evidence of increased tensions and rhetoric slightly increases the probability, but not significantly enough to suggest a high likelihood of a strike.
• Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 ET. A qualifying 'strike' is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives (military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives) that physically impact ground territory within Cuba (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second day after the resolution time, it will resolve to 'No'. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
• 10 Sources Analyzed — Including US isn't looking at imminent military action in Cuba despite Trump ..., US intelligence-gathering flights are surging off Cuba - KOAT, Cuban president denounces 'unprecedented' escalation of US ...