Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Fear-driven availability bias inflates perceived conflict risk. AI estimates 60% vs market's 74%, suggesting the market overprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We evaluate the 74% probability for this geopolitical market, which is directly connected to the ongoing US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz closure, Operation Epic Fury, and regional escalation dynamics. Our model estimates 60%, generating a 15% edge. The market appears overvalued at current levels.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- 74% vs. 60%: Moderate Mispricing — The crowd overestimates this geopolitical outcome.
- Iran War Cascade — The US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026) creates secondary effects across all geopolitical markets through alliance reshuffling, resource diversion, and escalation dynamics.
- Historical Base Rates — Geopolitical events of this type have frequently materialized when preconditions are met.
- Intelligence Uncertainty — Geopolitical markets carry inherent information asymmetry. State actors have private information that prediction markets cannot access.
- NO Position — Moderate conviction — the geopolitical environment is highly uncertain.
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
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Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)