Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Crowd consensus diverges from base-rate analysis. AI estimates 18% vs market's 10%, suggesting the market underprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We estimate 55% probability of 1,700+ measles cases by March 31. CDC reports 1,362 confirmed cases as of March 12, 2026 across 31 jurisdictions. At the current rate of ~19.5 cases/day, the US would reach 1,362 + (19.5 × 19 days) = ~1,732 by March 31 — just above the threshold. The trajectory makes this a coin-flip that slightly favors YES, accounting for potential reporting lags and weekend effects.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- CDC data (March 12): 1,362 confirmed measles cases in 2026 across 31 jurisdictions.
- Daily rate: ~19.5 cases/day — consistent over the past 6 weeks.
- 92% of cases are unvaccinated — anti-vax movement driving sustained spread.
- Math: 1,362 + (19.5 × 19) = ~1,732 — trajectory hits 1,700 around March 29-30.
- Risk factors: reporting lag could delay count; outbreaks can accelerate or decelerate.
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
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